Soul Core Buffs: 50,000 Reforges in PoE2

Welcome to a professional analysis of the revamped Soul Core arbitrage strategy in Path of Exile 2 (PoE2). In this comprehensive review, we'll dissect the recent developer interventions, their impact on market dynamics, and provide a data-driven approach based on our extensive sample size of over 50,000 reforges. This analysis is tailored for players who want to master the economic intricacies of PoE2.

Understanding Soul Core Arbitrage

Mechanics:

Arbitrage involves using the reforge bench to convert three identical Soul Cores into one random Soul Core. The goal is to land on high value cores, such as the colloquially named "Ass Clapper", which can potentially sell for over 200 Exalted Orbs. This process is essentially gambling on the RNG, but with calculated risks based on updated probabilities.

Recent changes:

An important patch now allows for the reforging of previously fixed Soul Cores such as Atmohua, Cholotl, and Zantipi. This has not only increased their market value, but also introduced a new level of strategy to arbitrage, with some cores experiencing a 30 to 40 times increase in value.

Market Impact:

Price surge:

Post-patch, the demand for attribute-converting Soul cores has skyrocketed, causing a dramatic shift in market ratios. For example, cores that convert 20% of an attribute now trade at a 1:3 ratio compared to before, escalating from 10 amoas per exalted orb to 30+ exalted orbs for the same amount.

Profitability Analysis:

The profitability landscape has changed; even less desirable post-reforge outcomes now have a significantly higher floor price, thereby increasing the potential return on each reforge. This change has made the arbitrage strategy more attractive to those with a high risk tolerance.

Specific Soul Cores:

Zelal: Previously a minor player when Ass Clappers dominated, Zelal now has 38 Exalted Orbs, reflecting its newfound importance in the market.

Setas: Its price has risen to 17 Exalted Orbs, an indicator of how post-patch market corrections can benefit niche cores.

Data analysis and strategy adaptation

Large sample size:

With data from over 50,000 reforges, our analysis provides one of the most in-depth looks at the probability distribution of Soul Core outcomes. This dataset, supported by community contributions, allows for accurate probability modelling.

Probability update:

Our findings contradict previous assumptions about rarity; the newly reforgeable cores are almost as rare as the Ass Clapper, necessitating a recalibration of expected value calculations for arbitrage.

Expected value calculation:

Using this extensive dataset, we've updated our expected value per reforge. Previously we used an equal-weighted probability model, but with accurate data we now estimate an expected profit of approximately 7 Exalted Orbs per reforge, which equates to an ROI of approximately 80%, significantly higher than our previous estimates.

Strategic Recommendations

Risk Management:

This strategy remains inherently high risk due to its speculative nature. Even with improved odds, players should employ risk management techniques, perhaps diversifying into other less volatile trading methods if their risk appetite is low.

Market Adaptability:

Adaptability is key in PoE2's ever-evolving economy. Players must closely monitor market trends, especially in post-patch scenarios where core values can fluctuate wildly. Quick adaptation can lead to significant capital gains.

Equipment Optimisation:

With the ability to reforge attribute-converting cores, players can dynamically adjust their gear sets for different scenarios or take advantage of market demands, enhancing both their gameplay and trading strategies.

Thank you for reading

Recent developer updates have not only reinvigorated the Soul Core arbitrage strategy in PoE2, but also complicated it. This analysis provides a professional player's perspective on navigating these changes with data-driven insights. For a deeper dive or access to advanced analysis tools, consider joining the channel for exclusive content.

Stay tuned for more updates as we continue to analyse and adapt to the shifting sands of Path of Exile 2's economy. Thank you for participating in this in-depth exploration, and we look forward to your continued participation in our journey through PoE2's complex market mechanics.

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